Retire Sooner Using a Bitcoin IRA
Bitcoin IRAs have become more common over the past few years. As traditional finance starts to embrace Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class, more options are emerging that let you use retirement accounts powered by Bitcoin’s exceptional growth.
These are typically self-directed products, which means they aren’t eligible for employer matching. So if you’re currently contributing to a 401(k) with matching funds, keep doing that—free money is free money. But check your 401(k) investment options—some may now offer access to a Bitcoin ETF. If so, it could be worth allocating a small portion there.
For even more upside, consider setting aside a little extra from your paycheck—or slightly reducing your 401(k) contribution—to fund a self-directed IRA that invests in Bitcoin. Even a small allocation to Bitcoin has been shown to boost overall portfolio returns over time.
One big perk: many Bitcoin IRAs allow you to trade in and out of Bitcoin and other digital assets without triggering capital gains taxes. That’s a major advantage—especially if you haven’t yet discovered the freedom offered by tools like a Foreign Express Trust or the Cracking the Code tax course by The Freedom People. (Click the links to learn more about how to legally avoid income and capital gains taxes.)
Now, to be real: these IRA products do come with fees, and they won’t outperform simply buying and holding Bitcoin yourself in most cases. But if you’re not yet comfortable self-custodying Bitcoin, this can be a great way to gain exposure without diving into the deep end. It can also be a solid bridge while you take the time to learn how to self-custody the right way.
Want to learn more about Bitcoin IRAs? [Click here to explore your options.]
First Quarter Disappointment for Bitcoin
Bitcoin just wrapped up its worst first quarter ever in the final year of a four-year cycle—down about 12.5%. That drop shook market sentiment, pushing the Fear & Greed Index into “extreme fear” territory, and even caused some analysts to declare the bull market dead.
Traditionally, Q1 in the post-halving year is one of Bitcoin’s strongest quarters. So this performance marks a major deviation from historical patterns. With roughly 210 to 240 days left in the current cycle, Bitcoin has a lot of ground to make up if we’re going to see the kind of parabolic blow-off top that past cycles delivered.
So, what’s different this time?
This cycle has been dominated by institutional investors and hedge funds, while retail participation has been relatively low. Retail started pulling back in early 2024—even as Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before the halving. As a result, Bitcoin has shown more correlation with traditional markets like the NASDAQ than in previous cycles. And if retail investors continue to sit on the sidelines, we may see a slower, more gradual price climb than the explosive runs of the past.
Institutions play the long game. They’re happy to scoop up Bitcoin through ETFs and spot markets at these levels without chasing price. That steady accumulation is keeping price action relatively subdued and lowering volatility overall. In past cycles, corrections of 35% or more were common. This time around, the average correction has been closer to 25%. Even the current drawdown—about 30% from the recent all-time high—is more muted than what we’ve seen before.
Right now, Bitcoin appears to be forming a bottom. Barring any major macroeconomic shocks, I expect Bitcoin to consolidate around the $80K mark for the next few weeks. Technical indicators and sentiment suggest a potential rally starting in mid to late April. If that plays out, we could see strong momentum carry the market through the final leg of the cycle.
Bitcoin and the Money Supply: The 12-Week Lag That Matters
Here’s something not many investors are paying attention to—but they should be: Bitcoin tends to follow changes in the money supply, especially M2. But it doesn’t move in real time. Historically, Bitcoin lags behind the M2 money supply by about 10 to 12 weeks.
Take a look at the chart below. During the summer of 2024, the M2 Global Liquidity Index (yellow line) began rising steadily. Roughly three months later, Bitcoin followed suit, rallying from around $60K to over $100K.
Then, from late September through early January, the money supply began to contract—and sure enough, Bitcoin cooled off soon after, entering the downtrend we’ve seen over the past few months.
But here’s where it gets exciting: M2 has been climbing again since early January. We’re now about 11 weeks into that rise, which puts us right in the zone for Bitcoin to respond—if history repeats (or rhymes).
If this pattern plays out again, April and May could mark the beginning of a strong new leg up for BTC.
The macro tide is rising—and Bitcoin has a habit of riding that wave. Stay alert, stay focused, and stay optimistic.
Altcoins Continue to Bleed in Bitcoin Valuation
Altcoins continue to drastically underperform Bitcoin, with many trading 60% to 80% below their previous highs. Bitcoin dominance—the percentage of total crypto market cap that belongs to Bitcoin—has been steadily climbing, which means altcoins are continuing to lose value when measured in BTC.
This is a major deviation from what we saw in the last two cycles. Traditionally, once Bitcoin established new all-time highs and began consolidating, liquidity would rotate into altcoins, sparking massive gains in the broader market. But that hasn’t happened this time—at least, not yet.
The difference seems to come down to liquidity, or rather the lack of it. The altcoin market looks starved for fresh capital, and without that influx, it’s unlikely we’ll see a strong alt season anytime soon.
However, there are signs that liquidity might be on the way.
In the most recent Federal Reserve meeting, policymakers signaled a significant slowdown in quantitative tightening—the process of reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. In fact, the Fed is now expected to end QT altogether by June. If that happens, and if the Fed starts easing rates or resuming asset purchases by August, we could see a wave of liquidity enter the system. That would likely benefit tech stocks and altcoins, which tend to perform well in high-liquidity environments.
But here’s the big question: can altcoins hold their current levels until then?
Right now, the risk-reward setup for altcoins looks shaky. Many projects are still overvalued relative to user growth and on-chain activity. In this kind of environment, it’s far more prudent to stay in cash—or better yet, continue dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into Bitcoin.
Bitcoin remains the strongest asset in the space, with institutional support, growing adoption, and deep liquidity. Until the macro picture improves and altcoin momentum returns, staying focused on Bitcoin is likely the smartest play.
How Macro Liquidity Drives Altcoin Cycles
To really understand what’s happening with altcoins—and why they’re underperforming—we have to zoom out and look at the bigger picture: macro liquidity.
During the 2020–2021 cycle, we witnessed one of the most explosive altcoin rallies in history. What fueled it? The short answer: massive liquidity injections. In response to the COVID-19 crisis, the Federal Reserve launched an aggressive round of quantitative easing (QE), rapidly expanding its balance sheet and flooding the system with cheap money. M2 money supply (a broad measure of dollars circulating in the economy) skyrocketed. Interest rates dropped to near zero, and Treasury yields collapsed. Risk assets across the board—tech stocks, crypto, NFTs, you name it—took off.
Altcoins, being the highest beta assets in the crypto space, benefited the most. Once Bitcoin established a strong trend, retail investors and speculators rotated into altcoins looking for higher returns. It was a textbook risk-on environment.
Fast forward to today, and the setup is completely different.
The Fed has spent the last couple of years in tightening mode, shrinking its balance sheet and raising interest rates to fight inflation. This pulled liquidity out of the system and crushed speculative assets—altcoins included. M2 growth has flattened, Treasury yields have remained elevated, and the cost of borrowing money is much higher. All of that creates headwinds for risk-on behavior.
But there’s a potential shift on the horizon.
At the most recent FOMC meeting, the Fed hinted that it may wind down quantitative tightening by June. If the data allows for rate cuts or even the return of QE later this year, we could see another wave of liquidity entering the market. That could reignite investor appetite for risk—and altcoins could be among the biggest beneficiaries once again.
Still, we’re not there yet. Until liquidity conditions improve and yields fall, altcoins will likely continue to struggle against Bitcoin. Smart money is sitting on the sidelines or rotating into BTC, waiting for a clearer signal that the macro environment is shifting back to risk-on.
April Outlook – AI-Powered Market Breakdown
Bitcoin is entering April just above $82,000 after a rocky March that saw prices dip as low as $81K. We’re still well below the year-to-date high of $109K, and the market is feeling the pressure. But despite the dip, the overall trend remains bullish—just in a consolidation phase.
Let’s break it down.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
- 🔻 Major Support: $81,000 and $73,000
- 🔺 Resistance Zones: $85,500, $94,000, and $100,000
- 🧭 Monthly Pivot Zone: $83,000–$85,500
- 🛡️ Macro Support Zone: $69,000–$73,000
The Bigger Picture (Weekly View):
The macro uptrend is still intact as long as Bitcoin holds above $73K. That’s our key structural level. If we drop below that, we could revisit the $69K range.
Momentum indicators like RSI are bouncing from neutral, which hints that we’re in mid-cycle consolidation—not a reversal. And March’s declining volume supports that idea—this looks more like a pause than a sell-off.
Zooming In (Daily Chart):
Bitcoin has been moving inside a broadening wedge since the $109K top, flirting with key moving averages.
- A close above $85,500 would likely confirm a local bottom and open the door for a push toward $94K.
- But a drop below $81K puts $73K support in play.
For now, we’re hovering near the 50-day moving average, with bulls hoping to reclaim the 21-day EMA soon.
Short-Term View (4-Hour Chart):
Momentum is mixed. Price has failed a few times to break above $85K, but higher lows are forming, which could trap shorts and spark a short squeeze.
MACD and RSI are perking up, but we’ll need confirmation before getting too excited.
On-Chain and Sentiment Snapshot:
- Open interest has cooled off, reducing the risk of sudden liquidations.
- Funding rates are neutral to slightly negative—traders are cautious but not panicking.
- Sentiment is sitting near neutral, which is actually great for trend continuation.
Macro Backdrop
Markets pulled back in March due to rising geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation.
The good news? Liquidity remains stable, and there haven’t been any major outflows from institutions or exchanges.
If the Fed starts easing this summer, risk assets (including crypto) could heat up quickly.
Possible April Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Case (~50% chance):
We break above $85,500, confirm support, and push toward $94K. This would likely require strong ETF inflows and a risk-on shift in broader markets.
😐 Neutral Case (~30% chance):
Price chops sideways between $81K and $88K for most of the month. Good for short-term trades, tricky for swing positions.
❌ Bearish Case (~20% chance):
$81K breaks down, leading to a slide toward $73K. Could be triggered by a macro shock or bad regulatory news.
Bitcoin is entering April in a consolidation phase after cooling off from euphoric highs. The higher timeframe trend remains bullish, but short-term weakness and indecision dominate. As long as BTC holds above the $73K macro support zone, the path of least resistance remains up. April could serve as the springboard for the next leg higher — if bulls reclaim momentum above $85K.
Bitcoin’s at a crossroads—and so is the broader market. If April delivers clarity from the Fed and strength in equities, we might just see the next leg up. Until then, it’s all about key levels and patience.
Expect volatility, especially mid-month around macro events. Range trading with bullish breakout potential is the most likely scenario.
Looking Ahead: A Bullish Future Rooted in Resilience
Markets hate uncertainty—and right now, there’s plenty of it. But that’s not unusual in a transitionary moment. We may get some clarity soon, especially with key policy announcements expected on April 2nd from the Trump Administration regarding reciprocal tariffs. If the market finds those policies reassuring, we could see a rally into May. If not, expect continued chop and volatility as investors search for direction.
Still, amid the noise, Bitcoin continues to follow its historic four-year cycle structure. Yes, there have been deviations—this cycle has been more institutional than retail-driven, and the macro environment is more complex—but the rhythm remains familiar.
And there’s real reason for long-term optimism.
Texas is on track to become the first U.S. state to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, possibly in April. Meanwhile, countries like the United States, El Salvador, and Bhutan already hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. These early moves signal a broader shift—Bitcoin is no longer fringe; it’s becoming strategic infrastructure.
Looking forward, I still expect new all-time highs to arrive between September and November. If that happens, this cycle will be another reminder that while history may not repeat exactly, it often rhymes.
In the end, Bitcoin’s story is one of resilience, innovation, and freedom. And if you’re here now, you’re early. The future is still being written—block by block.
All information provided is for educational purposes only. It is essential to conduct your own research before making any financial decisions. This is not intended as financial advice.
Links & Tutorials
Bitcoin Education Resources
Hope.com – Learn more about Bitcoin and how to use BTC to protect your wealth.
The Bitcoin Standard – Book by Saifedean Ammous – a must-read!
Crypto 101 – A beginner handbook to cryptocurrency
The Bitcoin Way – Go bankless! Bitcoin education and services to help you custody your Bitcoin safely and securely.
Swan Bitcoin – Bitcoin exchange, IRAs and institutional-grade custody solutions
River Financial – Bitcoin exchange and institutional-grade custody solutions
God Bless Bitcoin – Full Length Documentary
Freedom People Resources
People Pay – Accept Bitcoin payments for your business
Chainrecorder – Prove ownership immutably by recording your documents on the Bitcoin blockchain
Cracking the Code Educated Tax Return – Legally avoid income and capital gains taxes.
U.S. Regulated Exchanges (Fiat Onramps)
Coinbase – Using Coinbase Advance Video
Kraken – Using Kraken Pro Video
KYC Credentials Outside the U.S.
Palau ID – Foreign residence to pass KYC on foreign exchanges.
KYC Exchanges that Accept Palau ID (Must Use VPN – Costa Rica, Columbia, Mexico, Panama)
No KYC Exchanges (Must Use VPN – Costa Rica, Columbia, Mexico, Panama)
Levex –
DEXs (Decentralized Exchanges) – Best Wallet To Use
Jupiter – Video Solana Ecosystem – Phantom Wallet
Whales Market – Solana OTC Trade Desk – Phantom Wallet
Thorswap – Swap native assets cross-chain (BTC for ETH etc..) and a very unique decentralized Bitcoin lending platform. Works best with the XDefi Browser Wallet.
Decentralized Bitcoin lending platform. Thorswap Overview Video Loans On Thorswap Video
Osmosis – Cosmos Ecosystem – Rabby, Metamask
Spooky Swap -Fantom – Rabby, Metamask
Trader Joe – Avalanche Ecosystem – Rabby, Metamask
Crypto Market and Portfolio Tracking
CoinGecko for portfolio tracking and up-to-date prices
CoinMarketCap – Crypto Prices
Banter Bubbles – Crypto Prices – Social Sentiment
Trading View – Chart all Markets and trading pairs Tradingview Tutorial Video
Storage – Not your keys, Not your crypto!
Cold Storage Wallets (Secure Long-Term Storage of Your Crypto)
Casa Custody Solutions – Multi Sig Storage and Inheritance
Cold Card (Bitcoin Only) – Video
Hot Wallets (Lower Security – interact with DAPPS and Smart Contracts)
XDefi Browser Wallet – Video1 Video 2
Warning-If you have a wallet and an NFT has been sent to your wallet that you did not mint or purchase.. NEVER click on it. Many have malicious code that can drain your wallet! – BE CAREFUL
Stay Free!
Kury
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