The Bitcoin Cycle Is Nearing Its End
Everyone’s heard of Bitcoin’s four‑year cycle: three years of upward price action (the bull market), followed by one year of correction (the bear market). The midpoint, a halving event where miner rewards are cut in half, historically ignites supply-driven price expansions that ultimately lead to a parabolic peak.
📉 Some analysts argue these cycles are becoming obsolete, suggesting that now that corporations, nation‑states, and financial institutions are hoarding Bitcoin, a steady inflow of capital could sustain price growth without sharp declines. That’s possible. Alternatively, we may still follow the classic rhythm—but with a shallower pullback during the bear year due to deeper liquidity and institutional adoption. Nobody knows for sure—and anyone claiming otherwise deserves healthy skepticism.
Let’s walk through how each cycle has evolved:
- Cycle 1 (2009–2013): Bitcoin shot up from under $0.10 to about $1,242, then crashed 87% to $163. Very volatile, minimal mainstream awareness.
- Cycle 2 (2013–2017): A dramatic rise to nearly $20,000 by December 2017, followed by an 84% crash to the $3,200 range. This cycle included the introduction of Bitcoin futures on CME, which some hoped would stabilize institutional flows—but instead ushered in greater sell pressure.
- Cycle 3 (2019–2021): Starting with a rise to nearly $14,000, a crash to $3,800, then an explosive rally post‑halving as the market entered bull mode. Bitcoin topped at $68,919 in November 2021, only to collapse 77% to $15,580 amid Terra/Luna and FTX fallout.
Then came Cycle 4, beginning December 2022:
- Bitcoin rose steadily to $26,500 by year-end and $42,000 in 2023.
- January 2024 launched the first U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. By March, Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high—clearing $72K for the first time post-halving.
- After a consolidation into October, the bull market resumed, cresting at $109,184 in January 2025.
- Following a ~30% pullback to about $74,000, Bitcoin recovered to $117,000 by mid‑2025—matching a full cycle from low to high in roughly 1,060 days, mirroring earlier cycles.
But this cycle holds new dynamics:
- Institutional demand is deeper and more consistent.
- Retirement and 401(k) rules may soon enable ETF allocations—adding stability and reducing volatility.
- Bitcoin-backed loans and state-level strategic reserve programs are locking up supply.
- Banks like JPMorgan are beginning to offer Bitcoin-collateral products.
Historically, the average duration from cycle bottom to top is roughly 1,060 days, and from peak to next bottom about 383 days—a duration well-documented across multiple sources Learn More About The Bitcoin Cycles
If this pattern persists, a cycle peak could unfold in October 2025. Yet, with stronger institutional infrastructure and growing reserves, a post-cycle drawdown of 40%—or a drawn‑out sideways consolidation—may replace the typical 70%+ crash.
✅ What It Means for You
- The four-year structure still gives us a roadmap—but it’s evolving.
- Major influxes of capital and institutional commitment may dampen price swings.
- Volatility is not a bug—it’s a feature. Use dips of 25%+ as buying opportunities.
- Above all, remain disciplined, patient, and diversified.
Building a DCA plan or mapping out your next buy zone? Drop your comment and let us know your favorite way to stack Sats.
Bitcoin Monthly Historical Monthly Returns
Focus on the Lows
Too many fixate on Bitcoin’s all-time highs—but serious wealth is built by buying near the cycle lows. That’s especially true now that Bitcoin-backed lending is mainstream. These low points offer prime opportunities to safely unlock liquidity or add BTC.
🤝 Two Rules for Responsible Borrowing
- Use less than 50% of your Bitcoin as collateral, ideally around 49% or less. This cushion helps prevent forced liquidations if Bitcoin dips, since you’ll have room to post extra collateral. Platforms like Strike and Ledn widely enforce a 50% LTV, and currently is the standard.Strike Bitcoin Backed Loans
- Avoid borrowing when Bitcoin is near its peak. A smart rule: don’t borrow until Bitcoin trades at least 40% below its all-time high. This minimizes risk during volatile periods.
A third rule many seasoned holders follow: take loans only in the fourth year of the cycle—the bear market phase. Borrowing near the cycle low gives you time to pay down debt or let your collateral recover as prices rise into the next bull run.
⏳ Historical Bear Market Lows
| Cycle Endpoint | Bear Market Low (approx.) | Month/Year |
| Cycle 1 (2013) | ~$163 | Jan 2015 |
| Cycle 2 (2017) | ~$3,188 | Dec 2018 |
| Cycle 3 (2021) | ~$15,580 | Nov 2022 |
- Cycle lows have gotten progressively higher—a pattern of higher lows as each new cycle unfolds.Deep Dive Into Cycle Lows
- For 2026, historical trends suggest the cycle low will fall between September and November.
- Bitcoin has never dropped below the previous pre-halving year’s November low (~$66,000 in 2024), implying the next bottom is likely above $70,000—and possibly even higher due to stronger institutional demand locking up supply.Learn More Here
✅ Bottom Line
- Buying or borrowing near cycle lows gives you the best risk-adjusted return potential.
- Staying conservatively leveraged and timing your entry can dramatically reduce downside risk.
- As institutional capital firms up, volatility may moderate—but the opportunity to stack at a discount remains.
- Whenever Bitcoin dips 25% or more, consider it a clear opportunity to add.
Bitcoin Continues to Grind Higher in July 📈
Bitcoin closed July up 7.95%, with a month-end price around $116,250—marking the fourth straight month of gains. In mid-July, BTC surged as high as ~$123,000, setting a new all-time high before settling.
Sentiment remains bullish, with institutional flows fueling momentum and optimism surrounding regulatory clarity like the recently passed GENIUS Act. Historically, August tends to be soft for Bitcoin—but in post‑halving years like this, that trend often reverses. If momentum continues, we may see a rare fifth consecutive monthly gain.
That said, tiredness in the market is evident. With September historically the weakest month, there’s room for a pullback. Corrections are healthy in a bull trend—Bitcoin has already experienced four corrections of more than 23% within this cycle. A moderate retracement in September could act as fuel for a final parabolic surge into the cycle’s peak.
What It Means for You
- For investors: A September dip could offer an excellent opportunity to add more Bitcoin.
- For DCA users: Stick to your schedule—dollar cost averaging shines during volatility.
- For traders: Increased volatility could deliver actionable short-term setups.
The broader macro trends—ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and shrinking exchange supply—are aligning in Bitcoin’s favor. Adoption continues to rise, and each month brings fresh validation for Bitcoin’s enduring value proposition.
to the plan, keep discipline, and let the cycle lows work in your favor.
Some Altcoins Showing Signs of Life in July
- Ethereum (ETH) stole the spotlight in July, surging nearly 48%, and briefly touching $3,900—its strongest monthly performance against Bitcoin in three years. This spike rekindled excitement around altseason.
- Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance fell from ~66% to around 61%, signaling growing interest in altcoins—even if Bitcoin still holds strong upper hand in the market
- Notably, Ethereum and XRP led gains among major altcoins, even as Bitcoin remained around its all-time high. These gains pushed quality projects above broken dominance levels, hinting at a potential shift in market sentiment.
🔍 What It Means for You
- Ethereum’s leadership matters—as a foundational layer for most altcoins, its strength could drive rotational interest into other coins like SOL, BNB, ADA, XRP, DOGE, HBAR, and LTC.
- Institutional capital is preparing—many of these top-cap altcoins are expected to receive ETF approvals by October, which could lead to stronger relative performances into year-end.
- Bitcoin dominance trend still holds — despite the July dip, dominance maintained its long-term uptrend and remains supportive above ~61%. A clear rotation into alts requires a sustained break below that trend line.
⚠️ Strategy Reminders
- Risk is uneven, reward isn’t guaranteed—many altcoins still lack institutional trust or proven utility. Thorough research is essential before allocating capital.
- Selectivity is key—limit exposure to projects with real fundamentals, product traction, or network depth.
- Timing matters—if Ethereum continues its upward momentum and Bitcoin dominance decisively breaks its trend, capital could flood into altcoins more broadly.
✅ Bottom Line
Ethereum delivered a standout month—but the broader altcoin market is still testing the waters. A potential altseason isn’t confirmed yet, but if ETH holds strength and Bitcoin dominance declines further, we may enter a new game phase.
Until then, Bitcoin remains the core holding. Dipping into small, well-researched altcoin allocations may make sense for experienced traders, but for most, continuing disciplined Bitcoin accumulation is the safer, longer-term path forward.
AI Bitcoin Market Analysis – August 2025
Current Market Status
Bitcoin (BTC) enters August trading around $115,000–$116,000, following a July peak around $118,000–$119,000. After months of momentum and a new all-time high earlier in the year, price action has cooled into a short-term consolidation phase. The overall structure remains bullish, with higher lows since June, but buyers are showing caution near key resistance levels.
Technical Landscape
- Support Levels: $110,000 is the first line of defense; $100,000 acts as the stronger structural floor.
- Resistance Levels: $118,000–$120,000 remains the critical short-term barrier— a breakout above this range could trigger accelerated upside.
- Momentum Indicators: RSI in the mid‑50s suggests balance, leaning slightly bullish with room to run.
- Chart Structure: A symmetrical triangle is forming, typically a continuation pattern. A breakout—likely before mid‑August—could determine whether the cycle enters another bullish leg or corrects downward.
Sentiment & Psychology
Market sentiment stays firmly optimistic, with the Fear & Greed Index hovering in the mid‑60s to low‑70s, reflecting solid risk appetite without signaling euphoria. Historically, sentiment at these levels presages short consolidations before major moves.
Fundamental & Macro Factors
- Institutional Demand: Spot Bitcoin ETFs and treasury allocations continue drawing inflows, though at a more measured pace than earlier in Q2. This creates a steady demand floor during pullbacks.
- Regulatory Clarity: Moves like the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve and a clear stablecoin framework are boosting confidence among institutions.
- Macro Environment: Stable interest rates and bullish equity markets support Bitcoin’s trend. But any macro surprises—economic data shocks or geopolitical unrest—could quickly shift sentiment.
August Price Outlook
Bullish Case
If Bitcoin breaks above $120,000, momentum-driven buying could push prices toward $130,000–$140,000. Continued ETF inflows and positive macro signals underpin this scenario.
Neutral Case (Most Likely)
A consolidation between $110,000–$120,000 is expected, allowing gains to digest and building a base for a Q4 breakout. Traders remain cautious but optimistic.
Bearish Case
If Bitcoin loses support at $110,000, it may correct toward $100,000–$95,000, particularly if macro risk intensifies or sentiment shifts.
Summary & Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s major uptrend remains intact, driven by institutional participation and a maturing regulatory framework. Sentiment is bullish but not excessive—leaving room for further upside.
August may act as a decision month: either Bitcoin breaks through $120K, resuming a parabolic advance toward $130–$140K, or it consolidates in the $110–$120K range, setting up the next move into year-end.
Final Thoughts ✨
August 2025 may go down as a pivotal moment in the Bitcoin story—a calm before a potential breakout fueled by deeper institutional demand and growing regulatory clarity. As we enter this phase of subtle strength and strategic accumulation, the momentum is unmistakably in Bitcoin’s favor.
Institutional adoption continues to accelerate, with spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing billions in net inflows this year and major companies expanding their Bitcoin treasuries. These developments are drawing comparisons to gold’s rise—but for Bitcoin, it’s not just about safe‑haven appeal; it’s about transforming into mainstream financial infrastructure.
Regulatory momentum is strengthening. The U.S. government’s crypto framework—such as the GENIUS Act and the strategic Bitcoin reserve initiative—signals a new era of legitimacy. This clarity is giving institutions confidence to allocate capital into digital assets like never before.Business InsiderWikipedia
Sentiment is bullish, yet measured. According to analysts, Bitcoin is consolidating after months of gains while remaining technically intact. The structure suggests another leg up is imminent—especially if BTC clears $120K in the coming weeks.
If markets play out as expected…
- A breakout above $120,000 could propel Bitcoin toward $130,000–$140,000.
- Even if August is a consolidation month, the $110K–$120K range remains a firm foundation for future upside.
- Historically, low-volatility phases have served as launchpads for dramatic moves—this one may be setting that stage.
To you, the reader:
- If you’re an investor, hold steady—this phase offers clarity, not chaos.
- For DCA believers, stay the course—it’s during consolidations that disciplined investing compounds most effectively.
- For traders, watch for volatility—BTC moving outside its current technical range could present high-reward short-term setups.
Above all—Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset; it’s now being embraced by corporations, governments, pension funds, and institutional portfolios. The supply side is tightening, demand is firming, and Bitcoin’s narrative is shifting from speculation to structural asset allocation.
Stay focused, stay confident, and let’s enjoy the ride as Bitcoin continues defining the financial frontier of the 21st century.
All information provided is for educational purposes only. It is essential to conduct your own research before making any financial decisions. This is not intended as financial advice.
Links & Tutorials
Bitcoin Education Resources
Hope.com – Learn more about Bitcoin and how to use BTC to protect your wealth.
The Bitcoin Standard – Book by Saifedean Ammous – a must-read!
Crypto 101 – A beginner handbook to cryptocurrency
The Bitcoin Way – Go bankless! Bitcoin education and services to help you custody your Bitcoin safely and securely.
Swan Bitcoin – Bitcoin exchange, IRAs and institutional-grade custody solutions
River Financial – Bitcoin exchange and institutional-grade custody solutions
God Bless Bitcoin – Full Length Documentary
Zero To Hero Bitcoiner – Tutorials from BTC Sessions
Freedom People Resources
People Pay – Accept Bitcoin payments for your business
Chainrecorder – Prove ownership immutably by recording your documents on the Bitcoin blockchain
Cracking the Code Educated Tax Return – Legally avoid income and capital gains taxes.
U.S. Regulated Exchanges (Fiat Onramps)
Coinbase – Using Coinbase Advance Video
Kraken – Using Kraken Pro Video
KYC Credentials Outside the U.S.
Palau ID – Foreign residence to pass KYC on foreign exchanges.
KYC Exchanges that Accept Palau ID (Must Use VPN – Costa Rica, Columbia, Mexico, Panama)
No KYC Exchanges (Must Use VPN – Costa Rica, Columbia, Mexico, Panama)
Levex –
DEXs (Decentralized Exchanges) – Best Wallet To Use
Jupiter – Video Solana Ecosystem – Phantom Wallet
Whales Market – Solana OTC Trade Desk – Phantom Wallet
Thorswap – Swap native assets cross-chain (BTC for ETH etc..) and a very unique decentralized Bitcoin lending platform. Works best with the XDefi Browser Wallet.
Decentralized Bitcoin lending platform. Thorswap Overview Video Loans On Thorswap Video
Osmosis – Cosmos Ecosystem – Rabby, Metamask
Spooky Swap -Fantom – Rabby, Metamask
Trader Joe – Avalanche Ecosystem – Rabby, Metamask
Crypto Market and Portfolio Tracking
CoinGecko for portfolio tracking and up-to-date prices
CoinMarketCap – Crypto Prices
Banter Bubbles – Crypto Prices – Social Sentiment
Trading View – Chart all Markets and trading pairs Tradingview Tutorial Video
Storage – Not your keys, Not your crypto!
Cold Storage Wallets (Secure Long-Term Storage of Your Crypto)
Casa Custody Solutions – Multi Sig Storage and Inheritance
Cold Card (Bitcoin Only) – Video
Hot Wallets (Lower Security – interact with DAPPS and Smart Contracts)
XDefi Browser Wallet – Video1 Video 2
Aqua Wallet – Video – Self Custody, Lightning and Liquid Network Bitcoin & USDT
Warning-If you have a wallet and an NFT has been sent to your wallet that you did not mint or purchase.. NEVER click on it. Many have malicious code that can drain your wallet! – BE CAREFUL
Stay Free!
Kury
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