Can October Uphold its Noteworthy Stature in the Bitcoin Community as “Uptober”?
Bitcoin concluded September with an impressive over 7% increase, marking the largest gain in Bitcoin’s history for that month. Although this surge caught many investors off guard, it reinforces the notion that the Bitcoin bull cycle remains robust. Notably, the 2024 halving transpired around a month before the 2020 halving, hinting at an earlier return to an upward trend compared to 2020. As we step into the fourth quarter, and with October and November historically being two of Bitcoin’s most bullish months, the current cycle appears aligned to witness new all-time highs by November.
September propelled Bitcoin into positive territory, a feat accomplished only three times previously in its history. Each of these instances was followed by substantial gains in the subsequent three months. While history does not repeat, it often rhymes – suggesting the strong likelihood of a significant uptick in Bitcoin’s price trajectory over the next three months.
Signs of a Supply Crunch Triggered by the Halving
The relentless ascent of the hash rate on the Bitcoin network persists, directly influenced by the halving event. As the mining costs for Bitcoin surge, the price trajectory inevitably follows suit, underscoring a growing sense of scarcity. The repercussions of the recent Bitcoin halving are becoming increasingly apparent. Presently, the average mining cost for Bitcoin stands at $77,400, juxtaposed against a Bitcoin price just below $61,000. This stark contrast indicates that numerous miners are currently operating at a loss, a notable shift from the pre-halving average of around $40,000.
Furthermore, the landscape of Bitcoin adoption is evolving, with a notable increase in institutional interest. Major companies and financial institutions are integrating Bitcoin into their investment portfolios, signaling a growing acceptance of cryptocurrency in mainstream financial circles. This institutional inflow has the potential to catalyze a substantial price surge in the coming months, as Bitcoin’s status as a digital asset store of value gains further recognition.
In the backdrop of the global economic environment, where concerns surrounding inflation, monetary policies, and geopolitical tensions loom large, Bitcoin’s role as a potential hedge against traditional economic uncertainties comes into focus. Investors turn to Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, particularly in times of economic turbulence, amplifying its appeal and contributing to its upward price momentum.
Bitcoin Reserves On Exchanges Are Plummeting
Click To View Chart On CryptoQuant
Positive Signs for Bitcoin from Global Liquidity
Amidst the backdrop of China and Europe’s bold foray into expansive monetary policies, the global M2 money supply is showing growth. Despite grappling with economic headwinds, these regions are gearing up for a substantial surge in money printing over the next 6 to 12 months. While the US has taken a more measured approach, the Federal Reserve’s 50-basis-point interest rate reduction in September, coupled with the likelihood of further cuts by the year’s end, sets the stage for potential shifts in the financial landscape.
A fascinating facet of Bitcoin’s performance lies in its compelling 82% correlation with global money supply dynamics. It’s a simple yet powerful connection: as the money supply expands, Bitcoin’s price tends to rise, often outpacing the growth of other assets, as illustrated by historical trends (see the chart below).
Moreover, as governments across the globe grapple with mounting debt and the erosion of their currencies’ value due to inflationary pressures, Bitcoin emerges as a robust hedge against currency debasement. Positioned as a safeguard against the devaluation of fiat currencies, Bitcoin demonstrates resilience and the capacity to preserve value in an economic environment marked by monetary expansion and uncertainties.
In essence, the correlation between Bitcoin price and M2 money supply growth provides valuable insights into the cryptocurrency’s performance in response to Central Bank money printing or “monetary easing”. By recognizing and leveraging this connection, investors can capitalize on the money printing opportunities.
Bitcoin Remains the Dominant Force
Bitcoin’s dominance surged to over 58% in September before easing back to 57.5% by month-end. While some altcoins experienced brief gains against Bitcoin towards the end of the month, the majority, around 99%, still struggle to regain lost ground in their Bitcoin valuation. Bitcoin continues to exhibit resilience without showing any signs of weakening. As previously mentioned, I anticipate Bitcoin’s dominance to further increase to approximately 60% before any noticeable shift in the trend occurs.
Given Bitcoin’s robust performance in the cryptocurrency market, investing in altcoins at this juncture poses significant risks. However, it may be strategic to allocate a small percentage of your portfolio to select strong altcoins such as Solana, Ethereum, and Binance Coin (BNB). These coins have demonstrated sustainability and have managed to either keep pace with Bitcoin or, as seen with Solana, even grow in its Bitcoin valuation.
At present, I advise against allocating a considerable portion of your portfolio to any other altcoins due to the substantial and unwarranted risks involved. There will come a time when altcoins outperform Bitcoin by a considerable margin, presenting an opportunity to leverage altcoin investments for bolstering your Bitcoin holdings. Nonetheless, it appears that this opportune moment is not imminent.
Bitcoin Dominance Continues Its Strong Uptrend
October Outlook: Embracing Bitcoin’s Strength in Volatility
In the midst of global uncertainty, marked by the looming threats of conflict and financial instability, the spotlight shines on the debasement of traditional currencies and weakening economies. Within this turbulent landscape, Bitcoin emerges as a resilient asset, poised to continue its upward trajectory through the month of October.
As we navigate the evolving market dynamics, it is crucial to remain attuned to the signals indicating Bitcoin’s enduring strength. Until there are clear indications of a significant shift in Bitcoin’s cycle, relying on data-driven insights is imperative for anticipating its continued growth in the months ahead. For those seeking to expand their Bitcoin holdings, October may present favorable opportunities to capitalize on market fluctuations by seizing potential “buy the dip” moments.
The initial weeks of October are expected to bring heightened volatility, creating windows for strategic acquisitions. Subsequently, a semblance of stability is anticipated in the latter half of the month, setting the stage for a potential substantial surge in Bitcoin prices towards the closing weeks of October.
A Timely Reminder
With over 60,000 millionaires globally and only 21 million Bitcoin ever to exist, the scarcity of this digital asset underscores its unparalleled value. Those who delay their entry into the realm of Bitcoin may find themselves priced out of this transformative opportunity. Bitcoin stands as a beacon for safeguarding your resources and transcending the impacts of rampant money devaluation. I encourage everyone to persist in accumulating Bitcoin until you have secured at least one, ensuring your journey towards financial resilience and empowerment.
All information provided is for educational purposes only. It is essential to conduct your own research before making any financial decisions. This is not intended as financial advice.
Links & Tutorials
Bitcoin Education Resources
Hope.com – Learn more about Bitcoin and how to use BTC to protect your wealth.
The Bitcoin Standard – Book by Saifedean Ammous – a must-read!
The Bitcoin Way – Go bankless! Bitcoin education and services to help you custody your Bitcoin safely and securely.
Swan Bitcoin – Bitcoin exchange, IRAs and institutional-grade custody solutions
River Financial – Bitcoin exchange and institutional-grade custody solutions
God Bless Bitcoin – Full Length Documentary
Freedom People Resources
People Pay – Accept Bitcoin payments for your business
Chainrecorder – Prove ownership immutably by recording your documents on the Bitcoin blockchain
U.S. Regulated Exchanges (Fiat Onramps)
Coinbase – Using Coinbase Advance Video
Kraken – Using Kraken Pro Video
KYC Credentials Outside the U.S.
Palau ID – Foreign residence to pass KYC on foreign exchanges.
KYC Exchanges that Accept Palau ID (Must Use VPN – Costa Rica, Columbia, Mexico, Panama)
No KYC Exchanges (Must Use VPN – Costa Rica, Columbia, Mexico, Panama)
DEXs (Decentralized Exchanges) – Best Wallet To Use
Jupiter – Video Solana Ecosystem – Phantom Wallet
Whales Market – Solana OTC Trade Desk – Phantom Wallet
Thorswap – Swap native assets cross-chain (BTC for ETH etc..) and a very unique decentralized Bitcoin lending platform. Works best with the XDefi Browser Wallet.
Decentralized Bitcoin lending platform. Thorswap Overview VideoLoans On Thorswap Video
Osmosis – Cosmos Ecosystem – Rabby, Metamask
Spooky Swap -Fantom – Rabby, Metamask
Trader Joe – Avalanche Ecosystem – Rabby, Metamask
Crypto Market and Portfolio Tracking
CoinGecko for portfolio tracking and up-to-date prices
CoinMarketCap – Crypto Prices
Banter Bubbles – Crypto Prices – Social Sentiment
Trading View – Chart all Markets and trading pairs Tradingview Tutorial Video
Storage – Not your keys, Not your crypto!
Cold Storage Wallets (Secure Long-Term Storage of Your Crypto)
Cold Card (Bitcoin Only) – Video
Hot Wallets (Lower Security – interact with DAPPS and Smart Contracts)
XDefi Browser Wallet – Video1 Video 2
Warning-If you have a wallet and an NFT has been sent to your wallet that you did not mint or purchase.. NEVER click on it. Many have malicious code that can drain your wallet! – BE CAREFUL
Stay Free!
Kury
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